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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-28T15:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18106/-1
CME Note: Significant CME SW in COR2A and full halo in C2/C3. Source: X1.0 class flare from AR 2887 at S26W4 peaking at 2021-10-28T15:35Z and an associated significant eruption (with a EUV wave) seen in AIA 193/171/304 and EUVI A 195/304 starting 2021-10-28T15:25Z. CME arrival marked by sudden increase in magnetic field and solar wind speed and density, with B total briefly reaching 13 nT. The flux rope is clearly seen on the next day.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T09:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-30T16:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.Please specify following CME input parameters.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1200
Longitude (deg): -1
Latitude (deg): -20
Half-angular width (deg): 52
GONG input filename: mrzql211028t2204c2250_207.fits

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 52.95 hour(s)
Difference: 17.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-10-29T04:16Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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